It’s been a long time coming, but finally, interest rate cuts look certain to begin in September. Not only is that what government-sponsored enterprise mortgage backer Fannie Mae is predicting, but Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting that we could expect a cut as soon as the next meeting.
“If we were to see, for example, inflation moving down quickly — or more or less in line with expectations — growth remains reasonably strong, and the labor market remains consistent with its current condition, then I would think that a rate cut could be on the table at the September meeting,” Powell said to reporters.
A drop in the federal funds rate could reinvigorate a dormant housing market. Here’s a look at how things could change.
The Reemergence of an Investor-Friendly Housing Market
The Fed’s meeting this week didn’t produce an August rate cut but did increase speculation for September. This first cut—predicted to be 0.25 of a percentage point—should signal the beginning of the re-emergence of the housing market, trimming the benchmark rate to 5% from 5.25%. If the same happens in December and the economy is doing well—based on inflation and employment reports—then 2025 could gear up for a year of more cuts, with buying and selling returning with renewed vigor.
“At the moment, a modest cut of 25 basis points in September seems likely. If that goes well, we could even see two additional 25 basis point cuts before 2024 comes to an end,” said Jacob Channel, chief economist at LendingTree, in an email to CBS News. “Cuts are far from guaranteed, however. Remember, the Fed is designed to pivot quickly should something unexpected happen.”
While yes, the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly control the interest rates your bank charges, but it does influence them. The Fed sets the federal funds rate, which determines how much banks can charge each other when lending or borrowing excess reserves overnight. In turn, banks adjust the rates they charge for credit cards, mortgages, personal loans, and other financial products.
Lower Rates Will Bring Sellers Off the Sidelines
Despite better-than-expected home price growth in Q2, Fannie Mae economists expect a moderate closing in 2024 and 2025 at annualized rates of 6.1% and 3%, respectively. The advent of greater supply, especially in the Sunbelt, will ease prices.
However, inventory remains tight in much of the Northeast and Midwest. Lowering rates would encourage sellers to sell properties, creating momentum in the market. It would also make it more affordable for developers to build more houses.
“In aggregate, we expect these varied market conditions to lead to a slight decline in total new home sales nationally for the full year 2024, but a slight increase in existing home sales,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist, in its ESR report.
The Fannie Mae ESR Group sees no reason to modify its expected 2024 sales figures of 4.81 million from the previous month. Higher numbers are widely expected in 2025 as rates begin to fall. A rate of 6.8% is expected in the latter part of 2024, dropping to 6.4% in 2025.
Expect a Refinancing Frenzy
The upside of the rate cuts in 2024 will be increased loan originations—up by $14 billion from June’s forecast—with closings likely to occur in 2025. Unsurprisingly, homeowners and investors have put refinancing on hold in 2024, expecting lower rates in 2025.
As such, Fannie has forecast refi volumes to grow to $563 billion. The increase in home values has meant that many owners are sitting on a lot of equity, which they may want to deploy with cash-out refinances.
The Jobs Market Is Key
While rampant inflation was the main reason for the interest rate hike a year ago that helped slam the brakes on the housing market, lowering rates relies on a delicate balancing act between lowering inflation and keeping job growth stable. A dramatic hiring slowdown would be adversarial to economic stability.
In fact, up to this point, the Fed has emphasized the importance of lowering inflation, but has now shifted the language, saying they are “attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.” The dual mandate being the Fed’s chief goal of maintaining stable prices and low unemployment.
That means that the Fed will add more weight to the performance of the job market when making rate decisions going forward instead of focusing solely on inflation.
What a Rate Cut Means for Homebuyers
Making borrowing cheaper will help all areas of real estate. For investors, that means decreasing mortgage payments and increasing cash flow.
“At first glance, a decline of 0.44 percentage points may not seem like a big deal. But, in mortgage land, a 44 basis-point drop is nothing to scoff at,” saving about $100 a month in payments for buyers of a $350,000 home, LendingTree’s Jacob Channel noted in the CBS News article.
Moves Investors Should Make in Expectation of an Interest Rate Drop
So rates should fall later this year and into next year. How can investors ensure they “survive until ‘25”?
Improve your credit
If you have bad credit, you will not be able to take advantage of lower interest rates, so ensuring your credit is the best it can be is vital. Go to the federal credit reporting website to check your credit report for free without impacting your score.
If you don’t have great credit, start working on it today. Don’t allow debt to suffocate you. Take baby steps. You’ll be surprised how increasing your score by just a few points can increase your buying power and motivate you to continue on your credit improvement journey.
Lock in fix-and-flips now
A fix-and-flip can take six months or more. Thus, if you buy a fixer-upper now, by the time you list the house, interest rates will have dropped considerably. As the saying goes, date the rate and marry the house.
The market is still tight in many areas, so finding a home might present more of a challenge than fixing it up. However, buy well, and you could reap the rewards once rates drop.
Buy rentals
Buy rentals for the same reason you’ll buy a fixer-upper. Buying now will help you beat the rush, and once rates come down, you can always refinance.
Consider waiting to refinance
If you’ve owned a property for several years, you’re probably sitting on a lot of equity and might be thinking about pulling some of it out to buy more real estate. Think carefully about refinancing now. Holding off might save you money with rates due to tumble in 2025.
However, you will also have to balance this against the loss of opportunity by buying an investment to flip or keep, which you can refinance later.
Start renovations on your primary residence with plans to refinance later
If you own a personal residence and have a fair amount of equity, start sprucing it up now in preparation for a refinance with lower rates.
Simple touch-ups make a difference, even if your home doesn’t need a complete makeover. These can include:
- Painting the walls
- Decluttering
- Changing flooring
- Staining wood
- Adding new cabinet hardware
- Painting kitchen cabinets
- Adding new backsplashes
- Updating bath fixtures
- Adding moldings
These are all relatively cheap upgrades, but they can make a difference when a bank appraiser comes to calculate your home’s value. Plus, they will make you feel better while you live there, too!
Final Thoughts
When interest rates were last low, it was difficult to buy a home due to bidding wars and low inventory. That’s why waiting for interest rates to hit rock bottom is not a good idea. Instead, if you’re thinking about buying your next investment project, get started now and refinance later. With one rate cut due for September and the potential for more down the line, buying in 2024 will allow you to reap the benefits in 2025 without worrying about this year’s tax bill.
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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.
