China EV maker Li Auto (LI) reported August deliveries, with Nio (NIO), XPeng (XPEV), and Zeekr (ZK) set to release monthly figures on Sunday. EV giant and Tesla (TSLA) archrival BYD (BYDDF) will report sales on Sunday or Monday.
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BYD stock broke out of a base Friday, while the smaller China EV makers are down sharply in 2024.
Increased government subsidies and company incentives have buoyed EV sales in the summer.
Li Auto reported August deliveries declining from record July levels. Nio and XPeng are expected to report August deliveries that are roughly flat vs. July. Zeekr should see a rebound from a weak July.
BYD is expected to report a big step-up in sales from a record July, possibly hitting 400,000.
BYD and Li Auto reported mixed Q2 earnings on Wednesday, after XPeng and Zeekr reported in the prior week. Nio will release Q2 results on Sept. 5.
Li Auto Deliveries
Li Auto delivered 48,122 EVs in August, up 37.8% vs. a year earlier but down 5.6% vs. July’s record 51,000.
Li Auto mostly sells SUVs that are extended range electric vehicles (EREVs), essentially a form of PHEVs. Its first BEV, the premium Mega minivan, has not sold well.
Li’s lowest-priced SUV, the L6, sold more than 20,000 for the third straight month.
On Wednesday, Li Auto reported Q2 earnings tumbled 45% vs. a year earlier, beating views. But revenue rose 10% to $4.36 billion, falling short of views and growth slowing yet again.
Li Auto guided for Q3 deliveries of 145,000-155,000, implying August-September deliveries of 94,000-104,000.
With August deliveries in hand, that assumes September deliveries of 45,878-55,878.
Li Auto stock tumbled 8.3% to 19.46, hitting a 52-week low of 17.44 on Wednesday.
BYD Sales
Weekly China registration data suggest BYD will report another month of record sales, perhaps soaring to about 400,000. Credit new and updated EVs, many with advanced new hybrid technology.
Also, BYD’s new Thai plant, its first fully assembly plant outside China, began deliveries in August.
BYD sold a record 342,383 vehicles in July, up 30.6% vs. a year earlier, but just 0.2% above June’s 341,658. Out of the 340,799 personal vehicles, BYD sold 210,799 PHEVs, up 66.9% vs. a year earlier and 8.1% vs. June. BEV sales were just 130,000, down 3.55% vs. a year earlier and 10.5% vs. June.
As of July, BYD’s three-month sales were 1.016 million, clearing the one million level for the first time.
On Wednesday, BYD reported Q2 earnings rose 32% to 43 cents a share, in line with views. Sales jumped 26% to $24.2 billion, but missed forecasts.
BYD launched a few more models on Friday at the Changdu auto show, including a hatchback and new minivan.
BYD stock jumped 5.2% to 30.50 last week, including Friday’s 4.3% rally. Shares cleared the 50-day line and a cup-with-handle buy point of 30.
BYD is up 10.2% so far in 2024, the only EV maker that’s positive for the year.
Nio Deliveries
Deutsche Bank expects Nio deliveries of about 20,000 roughly flat vs. a year earlier and July’s 20,498 EVs
In September, Nio will begin deliveries of the Onvo L60, a Model Y rival. Onvo is Nio’s new mainstream brand.
Nio stock fell 1% to 4.04 for the week, amid some big daily moves.
XPeng Deliveries
XPeng deliveries will be about 12,000, Deutsche Bank estimates.
XPeng delivered 11,145 EVs in July.
On Aug. 27, XPeng formally launched its Mona Mo3, a sedan that’s much-cheaper than the Model 3. Mona is XPeng’s new affordable subbrand. The EV maker claimed 50,000 orders in the first 72 hours.
The Mona M03, which uses BYD Blade batteries, began deliveries Friday.
XPeng stock surged 14.8% for the week to 8.05, after hitting a 52-week low earlier in August.
Zeekr Deliveries
Zeekr EV deliveries should be around 18,500, up 50% vs. a year earlier and 18% vs. July.
Zeekr delivered 15,655 vehicles in July, down 22.1% vs. June as it began a big production line revamp in late July.
The unit of auto giant Geely debuted the Zeekr 7X SUV on Friday, with deliveries starting by the end of September.
Zeekr stock fell 4.8% for the week to 16.18, reversing lower from the 50-day line on Friday. Zeekr came public at 21 a share in May, hitting a record 32.24 on May 14. ZK stock hit a record low of 13 on Aug. 12.
Tesla Stock
Tesla stock fell 2.8% to 214.11 for the week, undercutting the 50-day line but finding support near the 200-day. Shares rose 3.8% on Friday.
TSLA stock is in a consolidation with a 271 buy point.
Tesla does not provide monthly China sales, but industry data will provide figures in the next couple of weeks. Weekly registration data points to a solid August for the U.S. EV giant., but new rivals from Nio, XPeng, BYD and more could prove a challenge in the coming months.
Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
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